The all important run in is upon us with the final 10 games of an unpredictable EPL season in the cards. Which clubs will be able to move up the table in this stretch and which clubs might see their hopes dashed? Find out in the Two Daft Yanks remaining strength of schedule analysis!
In terms of the title contenders Leicester City, Tottenham and Arsenal all have middle of the road schedules with the 8th, 9th and 10th easiest remaining schedules respectively. This strength of schedule analysis is based on the opponent home and away goal differential splits and then totaled up for a comprehensive number not for statistical purposes but to establish an order of magnitude.
Based on the analysis above Tottenham seems to have the most balanced schedule as they are the only contending club with opponents carrying a negative goal differential both home and away. Leicester has a somewhat challenging away schedule facing games against Manchester United (+12) and an improving Chelsea side (+5). Arsenal’s away schedule is even more demanding with games vs Tottenham (+15) and Manchester City (+18). Both Arsenal and Leicester do have fairly easy home schedules though and it will be key for both sides to come away with three points at home in their winnable games if they are to lift the Premier League trophy in May.
Between the main three title contenders there isn’t a whole lot to separate them and they will have to play well to hold off Manchester City who is 10 points back of Leicester but have the fourth easiest schedule at -19.
In terms of the relegation battle, Aston Villa and Sunderland both have challenging schedules placing them both in the top six in difficulty. Aston Villa faces three tough road tests versus Manchester City (+18), Manchester United (+12) and Arsenal (+9) which all but ensures their relegation. Sunderland face an up hill battle as well with the second most difficult schedule in the league with a total +26 rating in favor of their opponents.
Norwich and Newcastle have great opportunity to avoid relegation if they can take advantage of their remaining relatively easy fixtures. Norwich has the easiest remaining schedule in the league (-50) including home six-point matches against Newcastle (-25) and Sunderland (-20). While Newcastle travels to Aston Villa (-12) and hosts Sunderland (-20) in their own six-point matches.
Do the numbers on the schedule presented above change your mind on who may win the title or who might be relegated? Let us know!